How to Predict Elections | Helmut Norpoth | TEDxSBU

An analysis of election predictions throughout America's history and a description of Dr. Norpoth's own calculations for the 2016 presidential elections.

Helmut Norpoth is Professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University, where he has taught since 1979.
He holds an M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Michigan. He has also taught at the Universities of Texas, Cologne, Germany, and Essex, England. He has been a visiting professor at the Universities of Arizona, Mannheim, Germany, and Barcelona, Spain.
He regularly assists the New York Times with its Election night analysis and has served as a polling analyst for the Foreign Policy Association.
Norpoth has written or contributed to the following books as co-author or co-editor: The American Voter Revisited (2008; co-author), Politics and Government in Europe Today (1995; co-author), Confidence Regained: Economics, Mrs. Thatcher and the British Voter (1992), Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (1991; co-editor).
His articles on voting and public opinion have appeared in the leading professional journals.
He also has developed models to forecas

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